How We Define Sustainable Quality Compounding (Part 2)
Our thoughts on leasing vs. commitment to owning long-term assets, inflation vs. true pricing power, and normalizing growth
In this second part of the three-part series on how we define sustainable quality compounding, we’ll take a closer look at TJX Companies and Tractor Supply, and provide a brief, but effective framework around assessing consistency in shareholder value creation. In the third part, we’ll talk about Copart, and Pool Corporation
During our latest presentation, we talked about the impact of leased assets on perceived capital intensity. It presents challenges for companies that fail to grow their sales, absent significant inflation/pass-through effects, as escalating lease expenses bite into profitability (as illustrated with Advance Auto Parts last August).
This, amongst other factors, sheds a totally different light on longevity and underlying ROIIC.
If we strictly adhere to our principles of reinvestment runway, cash IRRs (un-levered), ROIIC, manageable cyclicality, and true pricing, one realizes: there aren’t that many investable options.
Hence, our portfolio concentrated around our top ideas which we believe deliver consistency at a reasonable price. Obviously, portfolio concentration can cut both ways, and we should never become complacent about past triumphs.
It’s our belief that, after lapping post-COVID pricing and demand tailwinds, today’s environment clearly reveals which companies can keep compounding shareholder value. Therefore, the job of a super-focused quality growth investors should have become somewhat easier, while acknowledging that the limited number of truly exceptional growth businesses may seem to be a scary prospect.
Since our Substack’s inception, we’ve written quite a bit on the cornerstones of quality compounding. That’s a lot of content, so where does one get started? We’ll soon share a follow-up on our most-read and most fundamental blogs, which will be listed under “Partner Q&A”.
With that, let’s start today’s discussion with TJX Companies, a value-based retailer delivering off-price value to its customers every day.
TJX Companies
TJX Companies is the leading off-price apparel and home fashions retailer in the US and worldwide, with a staggering track record well-isolated from the e-commerce threat.
FY17 Annual Report
We like studying companies like these, as TJX has been a consistent winner. It’s not a drug company that suddenly discovered a new blockbuster, nor is it an innovative play to benefit from a breakthrough in AI, or any other type of technology. In other words, it's a clear compounder you could have discovered intentionally, not by chance.
Customer Traffic Growth
Whenever we’re looking at retailers (quite infrequently), customer traffic is one of the most important KPIs. The effects from pricing are the icing on the cake, but in an industry where competition is so fierce and substitutes are readily available, predicting pricing and the impact on the bottomline proves to be a daunting task. Even more so in today’s environment with tariffs…
The one exception that comes to mind is the auto parts retail business. As AutoZone’s former chief executive (and now chairman), Bill Rhodes, reiterated previously: the dirty little secret in our industry: there’s pressure on unit growth as parts are lasting longer.
Additionally, increased car complexity drives inflation of 3-4%. Adding it up, the auto parts business grows at about 1-2% annually. Hence, the main KPI is overall comparable sales growth, which then boils down to pricing and taking market share/driving customer traffic, primarily in the very fragmented Professional/DIFM (Do-It-For-Me)/Commercial sector.
In our latest webinar, we’ve talked about how the returns for AutoZone and O’Reilly have been eye-watering, driven by the twin engine of market share gains (from the WDs, mom-and-pop retailers) and a pricing disciplined industry. It’s also resulted in tremendous ROIICs and IRRs on their pre-COVID growth initiatives.
O’Reilly’s Investor Day
Now that we’ve fully lapped these tailwinds, returns on new invested capital will inevitably gravitate toward a mid- to high-teens percent short-term ROIIC. It’s still solid, but the surprising fact is that investors have paid up for their track record over the past few quarters, at a time when growth and ROIICs have come down.
No Real Cyclicality and Driving Mid-Single Digit Comps
Circling back to TJX, it’s a value-based retailer that’s proven to be highly successful in driving customer traffic in existing and new stores. When the consumer outlook becomes more bifurcated and increasingly volatile, TJX stands to benefit.
As it expands its footprint, new sales will keep compounding thanks to the solid same-store sales growth. It’s slow but relatively secure compounding, with mid-single digit comps stacking up over time. The below graph depicts that FY21 saw the COVID headwind (comp figure for open-only stores) as TJX’s fiscal 2021 is not calendar 2021, but relates to 2020 primarily.
The Compounding Tortoise
Because of TJX’s focus on customer traffic and its explicit value proposition (priced at 20-60% below specialty, online, and department stores), its stock price lagged O’Reilly and AutoZone during the most recent inflationary periods.